Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

• Main Authors: D'Angelo, Gennaro, Hunke, Elizabeth Clare, Pitts, Travis Ray, Price, Stephen F., Roberts, Andrew Frank
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2023
• Subjects: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Arctic; albedo; Icebreaker; Northern Sea Route; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1832347; https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1832347; https://doi.org/10.2172/1832347

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. ...