Understanding the Cold Season Arctic Surface Warming Trend in Recent Decades
Whether sea-ice loss or lapse-rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification (AA) remains an open question. Analysis of data sets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70°–90°N) during 1979–2020 cold season (October–February) that is five times hi...
| Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1829713 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1829713 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094878 |
| Summary: | Whether sea-ice loss or lapse-rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification (AA) remains an open question. Analysis of data sets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70°–90°N) during 1979–2020 cold season (October–February) that is five times higher than the corresponding global mean. Based on surface energy budget analysis, we show that the largest contribution (~82%) to this cold season warming trend is attributed to changes in clear-sky downward longwave radiation. In contrast to that in Arctic summer and over tropics, a reduction in lower-tropospheric inversions plays a unique role in explaining the reduction of the downward longwave radiation associated with atmospheric nonuniform temperature and corresponding moisture changes. Our analyses also suggest that Arctic lower-tropospheric stability should be considered in conjunction with sea-ice decline during the preceding warm season to explain AA. |
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