Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST inc...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1825259 2023-07-30T04:05:16+02:00 Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M. Winter, Jonathan M. Osterberg, Erich C. Mankin, Justin S. 2021-11-05 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1825259 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825259 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1825259 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825259 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 2023-07-11T10:07:38Z Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Weather and Climate Extremes 33 100351 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M. Winter, Jonathan M. Osterberg, Erich C. Mankin, Justin S. Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. |
author |
Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M. Winter, Jonathan M. Osterberg, Erich C. Mankin, Justin S. |
author_facet |
Huang, Huanping Patricola, Christina M. Winter, Jonathan M. Osterberg, Erich C. Mankin, Justin S. |
author_sort |
Huang, Huanping |
title |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_short |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_fullStr |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_sort |
rise in northeast us extreme precipitation caused by atlantic variability and climate change |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1825259 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825259 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1825259 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825259 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
33 |
container_start_page |
100351 |
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1772817058941108224 |