A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf
Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1821598 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1821598 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1821598 2023-07-30T04:06:13+02:00 A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf Woodard, Dawn L. Shiklomanov, Alexey N. Kravitz, Ben Hartin, Corinne Bond-Lamberty, Ben 2021-10-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1821598 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1821598 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1821598 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1821598 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 2023-07-11T10:07:11Z Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 5%–7% and the atmospheric CH 4 concentration by 7%–12%, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25°C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70% of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10% of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback. Other/Unknown Material permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Hector ENVELOPE(-63.376,-63.376,-64.579,-64.579) Geoscientific Model Development 14 7 4751 4767 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Woodard, Dawn L. Shiklomanov, Alexey N. Kravitz, Ben Hartin, Corinne Bond-Lamberty, Ben A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 5%–7% and the atmospheric CH 4 concentration by 7%–12%, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25°C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70% of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10% of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback. |
author |
Woodard, Dawn L. Shiklomanov, Alexey N. Kravitz, Ben Hartin, Corinne Bond-Lamberty, Ben |
author_facet |
Woodard, Dawn L. Shiklomanov, Alexey N. Kravitz, Ben Hartin, Corinne Bond-Lamberty, Ben |
author_sort |
Woodard, Dawn L. |
title |
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
title_short |
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
title_full |
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
title_fullStr |
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
title_full_unstemmed |
A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf |
title_sort |
permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model hector v.2.3pf |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1821598 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1821598 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.376,-63.376,-64.579,-64.579) |
geographic |
Hector |
geographic_facet |
Hector |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1821598 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1821598 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
4751 |
op_container_end_page |
4767 |
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1772818683744223232 |