Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the re...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1813436 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1813436 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1813436 2023-07-30T04:05:28+02:00 Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji 2023-07-04 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1813436 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1813436 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1813436 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1813436 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 2023-07-11T10:06:07Z The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Pacific Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 744 1568 1592 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet. |
author |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
author_facet |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
author_sort |
Anstey, James A. |
title |
Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
title_short |
Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
title_full |
Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models |
title_sort |
teleconnections of the quasi–biennial oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of qbo–resolving models |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1813436 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1813436 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1813436 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1813436 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
148 |
container_issue |
744 |
container_start_page |
1568 |
op_container_end_page |
1592 |
_version_ |
1772817403668856832 |