A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet
We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1807560 2023-07-30T03:59:21+02:00 A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet Lee, Ben Seiyon Haran, Murali Fuller, Robert W. Pollard, David Keller, Klaus 2023-07-04 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1807560 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1807560 https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1807560 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1807560 https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 doi:10.1214/19-aoas1305 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 2023-07-11T10:05:22Z We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from ... Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic The Antarctic New Ground ENVELOPE(-55.215,-55.215,49.567,49.567) The Annals of Applied Statistics 14 2 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING Lee, Ben Seiyon Haran, Murali Fuller, Robert W. Pollard, David Keller, Klaus A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING |
description |
We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from ... |
author |
Lee, Ben Seiyon Haran, Murali Fuller, Robert W. Pollard, David Keller, Klaus |
author_facet |
Lee, Ben Seiyon Haran, Murali Fuller, Robert W. Pollard, David Keller, Klaus |
author_sort |
Lee, Ben Seiyon |
title |
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
title_short |
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
title_full |
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet |
title_sort |
fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-d model of the antarctic ice sheet |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1807560 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1807560 https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-55.215,-55.215,49.567,49.567) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic New Ground |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic New Ground |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1807560 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1807560 https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 doi:10.1214/19-aoas1305 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1214/19-aoas1305 |
container_title |
The Annals of Applied Statistics |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1772810142675369984 |