Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming comp...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1804388 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1804388 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1804388 2023-07-30T03:59:22+02:00 Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Storm Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Marie Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew James Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2022-03-07 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1804388 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1804388 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1804388 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1804388 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 doi:10.1029/2020gl091741 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2022 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 2023-07-11T10:04:59Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Storm Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Marie Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew James Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
author |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Storm Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Marie Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew James Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Storm Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Marie Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew James Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Payne, Antony J. |
title |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_short |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under cmip5 and cmip6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1804388 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1804388 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1804388 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1804388 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 doi:10.1029/2020gl091741 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
16 |
_version_ |
1772810165481897984 |