Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts
The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard as...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1798573 2023-07-30T04:05:47+02:00 Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts Ghanbari, Mahshid Arabi, Mazdak Kao, Shih‐Chieh Obeysekera, Jayantha Sweet, William 2021-07-23 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798573 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1798573 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798573 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1798573 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 doi:10.1029/2021ef002055 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 2023-07-11T10:04:26Z The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions. Other/Unknown Material Northeast Atlantic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Earth's Future 9 5 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Ghanbari, Mahshid Arabi, Mazdak Kao, Shih‐Chieh Obeysekera, Jayantha Sweet, William Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions. |
author |
Ghanbari, Mahshid Arabi, Mazdak Kao, Shih‐Chieh Obeysekera, Jayantha Sweet, William |
author_facet |
Ghanbari, Mahshid Arabi, Mazdak Kao, Shih‐Chieh Obeysekera, Jayantha Sweet, William |
author_sort |
Ghanbari, Mahshid |
title |
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
title_short |
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
title_full |
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
title_fullStr |
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts |
title_sort |
climate change and changes in compound coastal-riverine flooding hazard along the u.s. coasts |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798573 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1798573 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798573 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1798573 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 doi:10.1029/2021ef002055 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002055 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
5 |
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1772817933731364864 |