Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter
Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-membe...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1761515 2023-07-30T04:05:24+02:00 Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter Sun, Lantao Perlwitz, Judith Richter, Jadwiga H. Hoerling, Martin P. Hurrell, James W. 2021-11-22 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1761515 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1761515 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1761515 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1761515 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 doi:10.1029/2020gl090451 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 2023-07-11T10:00:52Z Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Geophysical Research Letters 47 22 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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language |
unknown |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Sun, Lantao Perlwitz, Judith Richter, Jadwiga H. Hoerling, Martin P. Hurrell, James W. Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed. |
author |
Sun, Lantao Perlwitz, Judith Richter, Jadwiga H. Hoerling, Martin P. Hurrell, James W. |
author_facet |
Sun, Lantao Perlwitz, Judith Richter, Jadwiga H. Hoerling, Martin P. Hurrell, James W. |
author_sort |
Sun, Lantao |
title |
Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
title_short |
Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
title_full |
Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
title_fullStr |
Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter |
title_sort |
attribution of nao predictive skill beyond 2 weeks in boreal winter |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1761515 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1761515 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1761515 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1761515 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 doi:10.1029/2020gl090451 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1772817276948447232 |