Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear ra...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1755848 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1755848 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1755848 2023-07-30T04:06:46+02:00 Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect Zhou, Chen Zelinka, Mark D. Dessler, Andrew E. Wang, Minghuai 2022-01-04 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1755848 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1755848 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1755848 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1755848 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x 58 GEOSCIENCES 2022 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x 2023-07-11T10:00:08Z Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Nature Climate Change 11 2 132 136 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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58 GEOSCIENCES Zhou, Chen Zelinka, Mark D. Dessler, Andrew E. Wang, Minghuai Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
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58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty. |
author |
Zhou, Chen Zelinka, Mark D. Dessler, Andrew E. Wang, Minghuai |
author_facet |
Zhou, Chen Zelinka, Mark D. Dessler, Andrew E. Wang, Minghuai |
author_sort |
Zhou, Chen |
title |
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
title_short |
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
title_full |
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
title_fullStr |
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
title_sort |
greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1755848 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1755848 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1755848 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1755848 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
132 |
op_container_end_page |
136 |
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1772819656129642496 |