Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades
The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic f...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1667448 2023-07-30T04:07:03+02:00 Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades Fasullo, John T. Gent, Peter R. Nerem, R. Steven 2021-07-12 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1667448 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1667448 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1667448 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1667448 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 2023-07-11T09:47:47Z The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research. Other/Unknown Material Southern Ocean SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 33 16 6911 6927 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Fasullo, John T. Gent, Peter R. Nerem, R. Steven Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research. |
author |
Fasullo, John T. Gent, Peter R. Nerem, R. Steven |
author_facet |
Fasullo, John T. Gent, Peter R. Nerem, R. Steven |
author_sort |
Fasullo, John T. |
title |
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
title_short |
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
title_full |
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
title_fullStr |
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades |
title_sort |
sea level rise in the cesm large ensemble: the role of individual climate forcings and consequences for the coming decades |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1667448 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1667448 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1667448 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1667448 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-1001.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
6911 |
op_container_end_page |
6927 |
_version_ |
1772820129810219008 |