Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea
Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. Here, we explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab....
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1662042 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1662042 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1662042 2023-07-30T04:01:51+02:00 Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J. Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie 2021-10-11 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1662042 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1662042 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1662042 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1662042 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 2023-07-11T09:47:04Z Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. Here, we explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Bering Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 78 2 502 515 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J. Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. Here, we explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward. |
author |
Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J. Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie |
author_facet |
Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J. Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie |
author_sort |
Szuwalski, Cody |
title |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_short |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_full |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_sort |
climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the bering sea |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1662042 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1662042 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 |
geographic |
Arctic Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bering Sea |
genre |
Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab |
genre_facet |
Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1662042 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1662042 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
78 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
502 |
op_container_end_page |
515 |
_version_ |
1772812589831553024 |