Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production
We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates u...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660596 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660596 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1660596 2023-07-30T04:00:35+02:00 Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production Gibson, Georgina Weijer, Wilbert Jeffery, Nicole Wang, Shanlin 2021-01-20 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660596 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660596 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660596 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660596 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 doi:10.1029/2019jg005343 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 2023-07-11T09:46:51Z We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Arctic Ocean ice algae Phytoplankton Sea ice SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Arctic Ocean Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 125 7 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Gibson, Georgina Weijer, Wilbert Jeffery, Nicole Wang, Shanlin Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes. |
author |
Gibson, Georgina Weijer, Wilbert Jeffery, Nicole Wang, Shanlin |
author_facet |
Gibson, Georgina Weijer, Wilbert Jeffery, Nicole Wang, Shanlin |
author_sort |
Gibson, Georgina |
title |
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
title_short |
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
title_full |
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
title_fullStr |
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production |
title_sort |
relative impact of sea ice and temperature changes on arctic marine production |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660596 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660596 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean ice algae Phytoplankton Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean ice algae Phytoplankton Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660596 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660596 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 doi:10.1029/2019jg005343 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jg005343 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1772811087168667648 |