Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses sug...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1625965 2023-07-30T04:03:49+02:00 Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate Liu, Wei Xie, Shang-Ping Liu, Zhengyu Zhu, Jiang 2023-07-03 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1625965 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1625965 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1625965 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1625965 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 2023-07-11T09:42:29Z Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. Other/Unknown Material Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Greenland Science Advances 3 1 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Liu, Wei Xie, Shang-Ping Liu, Zhengyu Zhu, Jiang Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. |
author |
Liu, Wei Xie, Shang-Ping Liu, Zhengyu Zhu, Jiang |
author_facet |
Liu, Wei Xie, Shang-Ping Liu, Zhengyu Zhu, Jiang |
author_sort |
Liu, Wei |
title |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_short |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_full |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate |
title_sort |
overlooked possibility of a collapsed atlantic meridional overturning circulation in warming climate |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1625965 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1625965 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Iceland North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1625965 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1625965 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601666 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
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3 |
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1 |
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1772814918400081920 |