Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
© 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatur...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604736 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1604736 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1604736 2023-07-30T04:01:27+02:00 Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W 2023-07-03 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604736 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1604736 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604736 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1604736 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 doi:10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 2023-07-11T09:40:34Z © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. Other/Unknown Material Arctic permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic The Cryosphere 14 2 445 459 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
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description |
© 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. |
author |
Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W |
spellingShingle |
Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
author_facet |
Andresen, CG Lawrence, DM Wilson, CJ David McGuire, A Koven, C Schaefer, K Jafarov, E Peng, S Chen, X Gouttevin, I Burke, E Chadburn, S Ji, D Chen, G Hayes, D Zhang, W |
author_sort |
Andresen, CG |
title |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604736 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1604736 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1604736 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1604736 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 doi:10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
445 |
op_container_end_page |
459 |
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1772812182995599360 |