Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models
Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent “pause” in global warming, have received consider...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1567550 2023-07-30T03:56:44+02:00 Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models Kravtsov, S. Grimm, C. Gu, S. 2022-03-31 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567550 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1567550 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567550 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1567550 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2022 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 2023-07-11T09:37:15Z Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent “pause” in global warming, have received considerable attention. Such decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends are common throughout the twentieth century, and their causes are still poorly understood. Here we show that the discrepancies between the observed and simulated climate variability on decadal and longer timescale have a coherent structure suggestive of a pronounced Global Multidecadal Oscillation. Surface temperature anomalies associated with this variability originate in the North Atlantic and spread out to the Pacific and Southern oceans and Antarctica, with Arctic following suit in about 25–35 years. While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using current generation of climate models. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Pacific npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1 1 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Kravtsov, S. Grimm, C. Gu, S. Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent “pause” in global warming, have received considerable attention. Such decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends are common throughout the twentieth century, and their causes are still poorly understood. Here we show that the discrepancies between the observed and simulated climate variability on decadal and longer timescale have a coherent structure suggestive of a pronounced Global Multidecadal Oscillation. Surface temperature anomalies associated with this variability originate in the North Atlantic and spread out to the Pacific and Southern oceans and Antarctica, with Arctic following suit in about 25–35 years. While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using current generation of climate models. |
author |
Kravtsov, S. Grimm, C. Gu, S. |
author_facet |
Kravtsov, S. Grimm, C. Gu, S. |
author_sort |
Kravtsov, S. |
title |
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
title_short |
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
title_full |
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
title_fullStr |
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
title_sort |
global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567550 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1567550 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567550 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1567550 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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1772814341323620352 |