Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years
To further our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present-day using transient simulations. Abrupt large am...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1565633 2023-07-30T04:05:16+02:00 Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi 2021-08-02 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565633 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565633 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565633 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565633 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 doi:10.1002/2017gl075786 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 2023-07-11T09:37:06Z To further our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present-day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long-term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three-dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our research illustrates potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long-term TC activity. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Geophysical Research Letters 44 20 10,624 10,632 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
To further our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present-day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long-term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three-dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our research illustrates potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long-term TC activity. |
author |
Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi |
author_facet |
Yan, Qing Zhang, Zhongshi |
author_sort |
Yan, Qing |
title |
Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
title_short |
Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
title_full |
Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
title_fullStr |
Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years |
title_sort |
dominating roles of ice sheets and insolation in variation of tropical cyclone genesis potential over the north atlantic during the last 21,000 years |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565633 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565633 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565633 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565633 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 doi:10.1002/2017gl075786 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075786 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
10,624 |
op_container_end_page |
10,632 |
_version_ |
1772817065874292736 |