Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by usin...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1565324 2023-07-30T04:04:13+02:00 Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years Liu, Zhengyu Lu, Zhengyao Wen, Xinyu Otto-Bliesner, B. L. Timmermann, A. Cobb, K. M. 2023-06-30 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565324 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565324 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565324 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565324 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 doi:10.1038/nature13963 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 2023-07-11T09:37:06Z The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets predict a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ~6,000 years. Other attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. In this work, we assess a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO 2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses. Other/Unknown Material Ice Sheet SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Nature 515 7528 550 553 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Liu, Zhengyu Lu, Zhengyao Wen, Xinyu Otto-Bliesner, B. L. Timmermann, A. Cobb, K. M. Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets predict a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ~6,000 years. Other attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. In this work, we assess a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO 2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses. |
author |
Liu, Zhengyu Lu, Zhengyao Wen, Xinyu Otto-Bliesner, B. L. Timmermann, A. Cobb, K. M. |
author_facet |
Liu, Zhengyu Lu, Zhengyao Wen, Xinyu Otto-Bliesner, B. L. Timmermann, A. Cobb, K. M. |
author_sort |
Liu, Zhengyu |
title |
Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
title_short |
Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
title_full |
Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
title_fullStr |
Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years |
title_sort |
evolution and forcing mechanisms of el niño over the past 21,000 years |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565324 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565324 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565324 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565324 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 doi:10.1038/nature13963 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963 |
container_title |
Nature |
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515 |
container_issue |
7528 |
container_start_page |
550 |
op_container_end_page |
553 |
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1772815488862126080 |