Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flota...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1565094 2023-07-30T03:57:13+02:00 Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) Bindschadler, Robert A. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Aschwanden, Andy Choi, Hyeungu Fastook, Jim Granzow, Glen Greve, Ralf Gutowski, Gail Herzfeld, Ute Jackson, Charles Johnson, Jesse Khroulev, Constantine Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Martin, Maria A. Morlighem, Mathieu Parizek, Byron R. Pollard, David Price, Stephen F. Ren, Diandong Saito, Fuyuki Sato, Tatsuru Seddik, Hakime Seroussi, Helene Takahashi, Kunio Walker, Ryan Wang, Wei Li 2023-06-30 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565094 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565094 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565094 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565094 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 doi:10.3189/2013jog12j125 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 2023-07-11T09:37:06Z Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic Greenland Journal of Glaciology 59 214 195 224 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Bindschadler, Robert A. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Aschwanden, Andy Choi, Hyeungu Fastook, Jim Granzow, Glen Greve, Ralf Gutowski, Gail Herzfeld, Ute Jackson, Charles Johnson, Jesse Khroulev, Constantine Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Martin, Maria A. Morlighem, Mathieu Parizek, Byron R. Pollard, David Price, Stephen F. Ren, Diandong Saito, Fuyuki Sato, Tatsuru Seddik, Hakime Seroussi, Helene Takahashi, Kunio Walker, Ryan Wang, Wei Li Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized. |
author |
Bindschadler, Robert A. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Aschwanden, Andy Choi, Hyeungu Fastook, Jim Granzow, Glen Greve, Ralf Gutowski, Gail Herzfeld, Ute Jackson, Charles Johnson, Jesse Khroulev, Constantine Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Martin, Maria A. Morlighem, Mathieu Parizek, Byron R. Pollard, David Price, Stephen F. Ren, Diandong Saito, Fuyuki Sato, Tatsuru Seddik, Hakime Seroussi, Helene Takahashi, Kunio Walker, Ryan Wang, Wei Li |
author_facet |
Bindschadler, Robert A. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Aschwanden, Andy Choi, Hyeungu Fastook, Jim Granzow, Glen Greve, Ralf Gutowski, Gail Herzfeld, Ute Jackson, Charles Johnson, Jesse Khroulev, Constantine Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Martin, Maria A. Morlighem, Mathieu Parizek, Byron R. Pollard, David Price, Stephen F. Ren, Diandong Saito, Fuyuki Sato, Tatsuru Seddik, Hakime Seroussi, Helene Takahashi, Kunio Walker, Ryan Wang, Wei Li |
author_sort |
Bindschadler, Robert A. |
title |
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
title_short |
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
title_full |
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
title_fullStr |
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project) |
title_sort |
ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the searise project) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565094 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565094 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565094 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1565094 https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 doi:10.3189/2013jog12j125 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
214 |
container_start_page |
195 |
op_container_end_page |
224 |
_version_ |
1772816397063159808 |