Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate–driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface–melt–driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavit...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544111 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544111 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1544111 2023-07-30T03:58:14+02:00 Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse Martin, Daniel F. Cornford, Stephen L. Payne, Antony J. 2023-06-30 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544111 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544111 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544111 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544111 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 doi:10.1029/2018GL081229 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 2023-07-11T09:35:11Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate–driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface–melt–driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding–line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high–resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full–continent simulations have typically been limited to low–resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present–day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ~1–km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine–grounded portions of the WAIS. As a result, vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Geophysical Research Letters 46 3 1467 1475 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Martin, Daniel F. Cornford, Stephen L. Payne, Antony J. Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate–driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface–melt–driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding–line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high–resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full–continent simulations have typically been limited to low–resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present–day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ~1–km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine–grounded portions of the WAIS. As a result, vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses. |
author |
Martin, Daniel F. Cornford, Stephen L. Payne, Antony J. |
author_facet |
Martin, Daniel F. Cornford, Stephen L. Payne, Antony J. |
author_sort |
Martin, Daniel F. |
title |
Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_short |
Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_full |
Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_fullStr |
Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_full_unstemmed |
Millennial–Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse |
title_sort |
millennial–scale vulnerability of the antarctic ice sheet to regional ice shelf collapse |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544111 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544111 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544111 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1544111 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 doi:10.1029/2018GL081229 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081229 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1467 |
op_container_end_page |
1475 |
_version_ |
1772821092305469440 |