Improved Wave Energy Production Forecasts for Smart Grid Integration

• Main Authors: Dallman, Ann Renee, Khalil, Mohammad, Raghukumar, Kaus, Kasper, Jeremy, Jones, Craig, Roberts, Jesse D.
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: Yakutat; Alaska
• Online Access: http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1531318; https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1531318; https://doi.org/10.2172/1531318

Integration of renewable power sources into electrical grids remains an active research and development area, particularly for less developed renewable energy technologies, such as wave energy converters (WECs). High spatio-temporal resolution and accurate wave forecasts at a potential WEC (or WEC array) lease area are needed to improve WEC power prediction and to facilitate grid integration, particularly for microgrid locations. The availability of high quality measurement data from recently developed low-cost buoys allows for operational assimilation of wave data into forecast models at remote locations where real-time data have previously been unavailable. This work includes the development and assessment of a wave modeling framework with real-time data assimilation capabilities for WEC power prediction. Spoondrift wave measurement buoys were deployed off the coast of Yakutat, Alaska, a microgrid site with high wave energy resource potential. A wave modeling framework with data assimilation was developed and assessed, which was most effective when the incoming forecasted boundary conditions did not represent the observations well. For that case, assimilation of the wave height data using the ensemble Kalman filter resulted in a reduction of wave height forecast normalized root mean square error from 27% to an average of 16% over a 12-hour period. This results in reduction of wave power forecast error from 73% to 43%. In summary, the use of the low-cost wave buoy data assimilated into the wave modeling framework improved the forecast skill and will provide a useful development tool for the integration of WECs into electrical grids.