Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary p...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476459 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1476459 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1476459 2023-07-30T04:06:15+02:00 Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi 2021-10-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476459 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1476459 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476459 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1476459 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 doi:10.1002/2016JG003384 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 2023-07-11T09:29:25Z Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change. Other/Unknown Material permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122 2 430 446 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
unknown |
description |
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m -2 yr -1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m -2 yr -1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPPmax). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C (Vcmax_25), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPPmax as well as their sensitivity to climate change. |
author |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
spellingShingle |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
author_facet |
Xia, Jianyang McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Delire, Christine Koven, Charles MacDougall, Andrew Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Saito, Kazuyuki Zhang, Wenxin Alkama, Ramdane Bohn, Theodore J. Ciais, Philippe Decharme, Bertrand Gouttevin, Isabelle Hajima, Tomohiro Hayes, Daniel J. Huang, Kun Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Miller, Paul A. Moore, John C. Smith, Benjamin Sueyoshi, Tetsuo Shi, Zheng Yan, Liming Liang, Junyi Jiang, Lifen Zhang, Qian Luo, Yiqi |
author_sort |
Xia, Jianyang |
title |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
title_short |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
title_full |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
title_fullStr |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: Modeled Productivity in Permafrost Regions |
title_sort |
terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region: modeled productivity in permafrost regions |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476459 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1476459 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476459 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1476459 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 doi:10.1002/2016JG003384 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003384 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
430 |
op_container_end_page |
446 |
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1772818743394566144 |