Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry
The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1469113 2023-07-30T04:01:01+02:00 Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry Tan, Zeli Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center Zhuang, Qianlai Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center, and Dept. of Agronomy 2021-10-25 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1469113 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1469113 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1469113 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1469113 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 doi:10.1002/2015JG003184 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 2023-07-11T09:28:47Z The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH 4 yr -1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7±5.2 Tg CH 4 yr -1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0–69.3 ppb. In conclusion, this study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Arctic Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 120 12 2641 2653 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Tan, Zeli Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center Zhuang, Qianlai Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center, and Dept. of Agronomy Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH 4 yr -1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7±5.2 Tg CH 4 yr -1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0–69.3 ppb. In conclusion, this study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future. |
author |
Tan, Zeli Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center Zhuang, Qianlai Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center, and Dept. of Agronomy |
author_facet |
Tan, Zeli Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center Zhuang, Qianlai Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Purdue Climate Change Research Center, and Dept. of Agronomy |
author_sort |
Tan, Zeli Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN . Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
title |
Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
title_short |
Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
title_full |
Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
title_fullStr |
Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
title_full_unstemmed |
Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
title_sort |
methane emissions from pan-arctic lakes during the 21st century: an analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1469113 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1469113 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Thermokarst |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1469113 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1469113 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 doi:10.1002/2015JG003184 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2641 |
op_container_end_page |
2653 |
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1772811722023763968 |