Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon l...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465455 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1465455 2023-07-30T04:06:46+02:00 Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble Wehner, Michael Stone, Dáithí Mitchell, Dann Shiogama, Hideo Fischer, Erich Graff, Lise S. Kharin, Viatcheslav V. Lierhammer, Ludwig Sanderson, Benjamin Krishnan, Harinarayan 2023-06-28 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465455 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465455 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 2023-07-11T09:28:22Z The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Earth System Dynamics 9 1 299 311 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Wehner, Michael Stone, Dáithí Mitchell, Dann Shiogama, Hideo Fischer, Erich Graff, Lise S. Kharin, Viatcheslav V. Lierhammer, Ludwig Sanderson, Benjamin Krishnan, Harinarayan Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes. |
author |
Wehner, Michael Stone, Dáithí Mitchell, Dann Shiogama, Hideo Fischer, Erich Graff, Lise S. Kharin, Viatcheslav V. Lierhammer, Ludwig Sanderson, Benjamin Krishnan, Harinarayan |
author_facet |
Wehner, Michael Stone, Dáithí Mitchell, Dann Shiogama, Hideo Fischer, Erich Graff, Lise S. Kharin, Viatcheslav V. Lierhammer, Ludwig Sanderson, Benjamin Krishnan, Harinarayan |
author_sort |
Wehner, Michael |
title |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °c global warming scenarios as simulated by the happi multi-model ensemble |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465455 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465455 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
299 |
op_container_end_page |
311 |
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1772819663815704576 |