Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to r...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465422 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465422 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1465422 2023-07-30T04:06:15+02:00 Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Koven, Charles Clein, Joy S. Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Jafarov, Elchin MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey Nicolsky, Dmitry Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Ciais, Philippe Gouttevin, Isabelle Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schuur, Edward A. G. Zhuang, Qianlai 2023-06-28 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465422 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465422 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465422 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465422 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 2023-07-11T09:28:22Z We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. Other/Unknown Material permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 15 3882 3887 |
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Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
description |
We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km 2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km 2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (10 15 -g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. |
author |
McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Koven, Charles Clein, Joy S. Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Jafarov, Elchin MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey Nicolsky, Dmitry Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Ciais, Philippe Gouttevin, Isabelle Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schuur, Edward A. G. Zhuang, Qianlai |
spellingShingle |
McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Koven, Charles Clein, Joy S. Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Jafarov, Elchin MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey Nicolsky, Dmitry Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Ciais, Philippe Gouttevin, Isabelle Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schuur, Edward A. G. Zhuang, Qianlai Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
author_facet |
McGuire, A. David Lawrence, David M. Koven, Charles Clein, Joy S. Burke, Eleanor Chen, Guangsheng Jafarov, Elchin MacDougall, Andrew H. Marchenko, Sergey Nicolsky, Dmitry Peng, Shushi Rinke, Annette Ciais, Philippe Gouttevin, Isabelle Hayes, Daniel J. Ji, Duoying Krinner, Gerhard Moore, John C. Romanovsky, Vladimir Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schuur, Edward A. G. Zhuang, Qianlai |
author_sort |
McGuire, A. David |
title |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_short |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_full |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_fullStr |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
title_sort |
dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465422 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465422 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465422 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1465422 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 doi:10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
115 |
container_issue |
15 |
container_start_page |
3882 |
op_container_end_page |
3887 |
_version_ |
1772818735953870848 |