Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios
Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we anal...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1462981 2023-07-30T04:05:36+02:00 Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios Barcikowska, Monika J. Weaver, Scott J. Feser, Frauke Russo, Simone Schenk, Frederik Stone, Daithi A. Wehner, Michael F. Zahn, Matthias 2023-06-28 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462981 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1462981 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462981 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1462981 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 doi:10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 2023-07-11T09:28:05Z Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Here, regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of ... Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic Norwegian Sea SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Norwegian Sea Earth System Dynamics 9 2 679 699 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Barcikowska, Monika J. Weaver, Scott J. Feser, Frauke Russo, Simone Schenk, Frederik Stone, Daithi A. Wehner, Michael F. Zahn, Matthias Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Here, regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of ... |
author |
Barcikowska, Monika J. Weaver, Scott J. Feser, Frauke Russo, Simone Schenk, Frederik Stone, Daithi A. Wehner, Michael F. Zahn, Matthias |
author_facet |
Barcikowska, Monika J. Weaver, Scott J. Feser, Frauke Russo, Simone Schenk, Frederik Stone, Daithi A. Wehner, Michael F. Zahn, Matthias |
author_sort |
Barcikowska, Monika J. |
title |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_short |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_full |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_sort |
euro-atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °c vs. 2 °c warming scenarios |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462981 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1462981 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 |
geographic |
Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Norwegian Sea |
genre |
North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462981 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1462981 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 doi:10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
679 |
op_container_end_page |
699 |
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1772817616151248896 |