Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks
Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, sig...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1438795 2023-07-30T03:58:27+02:00 Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks Po-Chedley, Stephen Armour, Kyle C. Bitz, Cecilia M. Zelinka, Mark D. Santer, Benjamin D. Fu, Qiang 2021-10-25 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438795 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438795 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438795 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438795 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 2023-07-11T09:26:00Z Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterized using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Antarctic Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 31 8 3187 3206 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
unknown |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES Po-Chedley, Stephen Armour, Kyle C. Bitz, Cecilia M. Zelinka, Mark D. Santer, Benjamin D. Fu, Qiang Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterized using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks. |
author |
Po-Chedley, Stephen Armour, Kyle C. Bitz, Cecilia M. Zelinka, Mark D. Santer, Benjamin D. Fu, Qiang |
author_facet |
Po-Chedley, Stephen Armour, Kyle C. Bitz, Cecilia M. Zelinka, Mark D. Santer, Benjamin D. Fu, Qiang |
author_sort |
Po-Chedley, Stephen |
title |
Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
title_short |
Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
title_full |
Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
title_fullStr |
Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks |
title_sort |
sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438795 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438795 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438795 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438795 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0674.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3187 |
op_container_end_page |
3206 |
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1772821249118961664 |