Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100
Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~–50 Gt a –1 , one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observa...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438453 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438453 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 |
id |
ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1438453 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1438453 2023-07-30T04:03:35+02:00 Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 Wahr, John Burgess, Evan Swenson, Sean 2021-07-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438453 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438453 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438453 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438453 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 doi:10.1017/jog.2016.49 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2021 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 2023-07-11T09:25:55Z Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~–50 Gt a –1 , one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interim snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. Here, we conclude that mass loss rates may increase between –80 and –110 Gt a –1 by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 ± 4 mm during the 21st century. Other/Unknown Material glacier glaciers Alaska SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Journal of Glaciology 62 234 623 639 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Wahr, John Burgess, Evan Swenson, Sean Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~–50 Gt a –1 , one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interim snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. Here, we conclude that mass loss rates may increase between –80 and –110 Gt a –1 by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 ± 4 mm during the 21st century. |
author |
Wahr, John Burgess, Evan Swenson, Sean |
author_facet |
Wahr, John Burgess, Evan Swenson, Sean |
author_sort |
Wahr, John |
title |
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
title_short |
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
title_full |
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
title_sort |
using grace and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of alaskan glaciers through 2100 |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438453 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438453 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 |
genre |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
genre_facet |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438453 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438453 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 doi:10.1017/jog.2016.49 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.49 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
62 |
container_issue |
234 |
container_start_page |
623 |
op_container_end_page |
639 |
_version_ |
1772814623586648064 |