Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate...
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407339 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1407339 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1407339 2023-07-30T04:06:14+02:00 Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin, F. S. Christensen, T. R. Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O’Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Walter Anthony, K. M. Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. 2023-06-27 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407339 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1407339 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407339 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1407339 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 2023-07-11T09:22:41Z Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50% larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. Other/Unknown Material permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Climatic Change 119 2 359 374 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin, F. S. Christensen, T. R. Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O’Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Walter Anthony, K. M. Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50% larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. |
author |
Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin, F. S. Christensen, T. R. Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O’Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Walter Anthony, K. M. Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. |
author_facet |
Schuur, E. A. G. Abbott, B. W. Bowden, W. B. Brovkin, V. Camill, P. Canadell, J. G. Chanton, J. P. Chapin, F. S. Christensen, T. R. Ciais, P. Crosby, B. T. Czimczik, C. I. Grosse, G. Harden, J. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jastrow, J. D. Jones, J. B. Kleinen, T. Koven, C. D. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. O’Donnell, J. A. Ping, C. L. Riley, W. J. Rinke, A. Romanovsky, V. E. Sannel, A. B. K. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Sky, J. Subin, Z. M. Tarnocai, C. Turetsky, M. R. Waldrop, M. P. Walter Anthony, K. M. Wickland, K. P. Wilson, C. J. Zimov, S. A. |
author_sort |
Schuur, E. A. G. |
title |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_short |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_sort |
expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407339 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1407339 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1407339 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1407339 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
359 |
op_container_end_page |
374 |
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1772818709313748992 |