An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet
Here, we propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic si...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345150 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345150 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1345150 2023-07-30T04:03:38+02:00 An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet Price, Stephen F. Dr Hoffman, Matthew James Bonin, Jennifer Howat, Ian Neumann, Thomas Saba, Jack Tezaur, Irina Guerber, Jeffrey Chambers, Don Evans, Katherine Kennedy, Joseph Lenaerts, Jan Lipscomb, William Henry Perego, Mauro Salinger, Andrew Tuminaro, Raymond van den Broeke, Michiel Nowicki, Sophie 2023-06-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345150 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345150 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345150 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345150 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 doi:10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 58 GEOSCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 2023-07-11T09:17:26Z Here, we propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. Lastly, an ... Other/Unknown Material glacier Greenland Ice Sheet SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Greenland Geoscientific Model Development 10 1 255 270 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
op_collection_id |
ftosti |
language |
unknown |
topic |
58 GEOSCIENCES |
spellingShingle |
58 GEOSCIENCES Price, Stephen F. Dr Hoffman, Matthew James Bonin, Jennifer Howat, Ian Neumann, Thomas Saba, Jack Tezaur, Irina Guerber, Jeffrey Chambers, Don Evans, Katherine Kennedy, Joseph Lenaerts, Jan Lipscomb, William Henry Perego, Mauro Salinger, Andrew Tuminaro, Raymond van den Broeke, Michiel Nowicki, Sophie An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
Here, we propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. Lastly, an ... |
author |
Price, Stephen F. Dr Hoffman, Matthew James Bonin, Jennifer Howat, Ian Neumann, Thomas Saba, Jack Tezaur, Irina Guerber, Jeffrey Chambers, Don Evans, Katherine Kennedy, Joseph Lenaerts, Jan Lipscomb, William Henry Perego, Mauro Salinger, Andrew Tuminaro, Raymond van den Broeke, Michiel Nowicki, Sophie |
author_facet |
Price, Stephen F. Dr Hoffman, Matthew James Bonin, Jennifer Howat, Ian Neumann, Thomas Saba, Jack Tezaur, Irina Guerber, Jeffrey Chambers, Don Evans, Katherine Kennedy, Joseph Lenaerts, Jan Lipscomb, William Henry Perego, Mauro Salinger, Andrew Tuminaro, Raymond van den Broeke, Michiel Nowicki, Sophie |
author_sort |
Price, Stephen F. Dr |
title |
An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
ice sheet model validation framework for the greenland ice sheet |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345150 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345150 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1345150 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1345150 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 doi:10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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255 |
op_container_end_page |
270 |
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1772814664626864128 |