A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify t...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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Online Access: | http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1257635 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1257635 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1257635 2023-07-30T04:06:16+02:00 A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback Koven, C. D. Schuur, E. A. G. Schadel, C. Bohn, T. J. Burke, E. J. Chen, G. Chen, X. Ciais, P. Grosse, G. Harden, J. W. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E. E. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. MacDougall, A. H. Marchenko, S. S. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. Nicolsky, D. J. Olefeldt, D. Peng, S. Romanovsky, V. E. Schaefer, K. M. Strauss, J. Treat, C. C. Turetsky, M. 2023-06-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1257635 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1257635 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1257635 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1257635 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 2023-07-11T09:06:47Z We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of –14 to –19 Pg C °C–1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. In conclusion, the simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes ... Other/Unknown Material permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373 2054 20140423 |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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ftosti |
language |
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topic |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Koven, C. D. Schuur, E. A. G. Schadel, C. Bohn, T. J. Burke, E. J. Chen, G. Chen, X. Ciais, P. Grosse, G. Harden, J. W. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E. E. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. MacDougall, A. H. Marchenko, S. S. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. Nicolsky, D. J. Olefeldt, D. Peng, S. Romanovsky, V. E. Schaefer, K. M. Strauss, J. Treat, C. C. Turetsky, M. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
topic_facet |
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES |
description |
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of –14 to –19 Pg C °C–1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. In conclusion, the simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes ... |
author |
Koven, C. D. Schuur, E. A. G. Schadel, C. Bohn, T. J. Burke, E. J. Chen, G. Chen, X. Ciais, P. Grosse, G. Harden, J. W. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E. E. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. MacDougall, A. H. Marchenko, S. S. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. Nicolsky, D. J. Olefeldt, D. Peng, S. Romanovsky, V. E. Schaefer, K. M. Strauss, J. Treat, C. C. Turetsky, M. |
author_facet |
Koven, C. D. Schuur, E. A. G. Schadel, C. Bohn, T. J. Burke, E. J. Chen, G. Chen, X. Ciais, P. Grosse, G. Harden, J. W. Hayes, D. J. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E. E. Krinner, G. Kuhry, P. Lawrence, D. M. MacDougall, A. H. Marchenko, S. S. McGuire, A. D. Natali, S. M. Nicolsky, D. J. Olefeldt, D. Peng, S. Romanovsky, V. E. Schaefer, K. M. Strauss, J. Treat, C. C. Turetsky, M. |
author_sort |
Koven, C. D. |
title |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_short |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_full |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_fullStr |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
title_sort |
simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1257635 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1257635 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1257635 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1257635 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
373 |
container_issue |
2054 |
container_start_page |
20140423 |
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1772818783129305088 |