Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis
The effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consis...
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ftosti:oai:osti.gov:1208661 2023-07-30T03:55:27+02:00 Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis Harp, D. R. Atchley, A. L. Painter, S. L. Coon, E. T. Wilson, C. J. Romanovsky, V. E. Rowland, J. C. 2023-06-26 application/pdf http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1208661 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1208661 https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 unknown http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1208661 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1208661 https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 doi:10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 58 GEOSCIENCES 2023 ftosti https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 2023-07-11T09:02:20Z The effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of intra-annual uncertainty due to soil properties and the inter-annual variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant intra-annual uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Intra-annual uncertainties in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume and time integrated Stefan number decreases significantly in the future climate, indicating that latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction in future climates. Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate ... Other/Unknown Material Active layer thickness permafrost SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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SciTec Connect (Office of Scientific and Technical Information - OSTI, U.S. Department of Energy) |
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58 GEOSCIENCES |
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58 GEOSCIENCES Harp, D. R. Atchley, A. L. Painter, S. L. Coon, E. T. Wilson, C. J. Romanovsky, V. E. Rowland, J. C. Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
topic_facet |
58 GEOSCIENCES |
description |
The effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of intra-annual uncertainty due to soil properties and the inter-annual variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant intra-annual uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Intra-annual uncertainties in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume and time integrated Stefan number decreases significantly in the future climate, indicating that latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction in future climates. Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate ... |
author |
Harp, D. R. Atchley, A. L. Painter, S. L. Coon, E. T. Wilson, C. J. Romanovsky, V. E. Rowland, J. C. |
author_facet |
Harp, D. R. Atchley, A. L. Painter, S. L. Coon, E. T. Wilson, C. J. Romanovsky, V. E. Rowland, J. C. |
author_sort |
Harp, D. R. |
title |
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
title_short |
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
title_full |
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
title_fullStr |
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis |
title_sort |
effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1208661 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1208661 https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 |
genre |
Active layer thickness permafrost |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1208661 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1208661 https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 doi:10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-3351-2015 |
_version_ |
1772812700930277376 |