Quantifying regional changes in terrestrial carbon storage by extrapolation from local ecosystem models

• Main Author: King, A W
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2014
• Subjects: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CARBON CYCLE; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; CARBON DIOXIDE; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION; MONTE CARLO METHOD; HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS; CORRELATIONS; Subarctic
• Online Access: http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10110874; https://www.osti.gov/biblio/10110874

A general procedure for quantifying regional carbon dynamics by spatial extrapolation of local ecosystem models is presented Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the expected value of one or more local models, explicitly integrating the spatial heterogeneity of variables that influence ecosystem carbon flux and storage. These variables are described by empirically derived probability distributions that are input to the Monte Carlo process. The procedure provides large-scale regional estimates based explicitly on information and understanding acquired at smaller and more accessible scales.Results are presented from an earlier application to seasonal atmosphere-biosphere CO{sub 2} exchange for circumpolar ``subarctic`` latitudes (64{degree}N-90{degree}N). Results suggest that, under certain climatic conditions, these high northern ecosystems could collectively release 0.2 Gt of carbon per year to the atmosphere. I interpret these results with respect to questions about global biospheric sinks for atmospheric CO{sub 2} .