Dynamical Stability Indicator based on Autoregressive Moving-Average Models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

• Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
• Main Authors: Rodal, Marie, Krumscheid, Sebastian, Madan, Gaurav, Lacasce, Joseph Henry, Vercauteren, Nikki
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Greenland; Ice Sheet; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97775; https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the [Formula: see text] indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The [Formula: see text] indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling [Formula: see text] scenario, the quadrupling [Formula: see text] scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase.