Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems
Abstract. Understanding the transport of objects and material in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is critical for human operations in polar regions. This can be the transport of pollutants, such as spilled oil, or the transport of objects, such as drifting ships and search and rescue operations. For emer...
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Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97583 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/97583 2023-05-15T18:32:10+02:00 Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems ENEngelskEnglishEstimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind 2022-09-01T09:40:20Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97583 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 EN eng Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH NFR/280625 NFR/28062 NFR/276730 Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind . Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems. The Cryosphere. 2022, 16(5), 2103-2114 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97583 2047788 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=16&rft.spage=2103&rft.date=2022 The Cryosphere 16 5 2103 2114 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1994-0416 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2022 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 2022-11-16T23:35:58Z Abstract. Understanding the transport of objects and material in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is critical for human operations in polar regions. This can be the transport of pollutants, such as spilled oil, or the transport of objects, such as drifting ships and search and rescue operations. For emergency response, the use of environmental prediction systems are required which predict ice and ocean parameters and are run operationally by many centres in the world. As these prediction systems predict both ice and ocean velocities, as well as ice concentration, it must be chosen how to combine these data to best predict the mean transport velocities. In this paper we present a case study of four drifting buoys in the MIZ deployed at four distinct ice concentrations. We compare short-term trajectories, i.e. up to 48 h lead times, with standard transport models using ice and ocean velocities from two operational prediction systems. A new transport model for the MIZ is developed with two key features aimed to help mitigate uncertainties in ice–ocean prediction systems: first, including both ice and ocean velocities and linearly weighting them by ice concentration, and second, allowing for a non-zero leeway to be added to the ice velocity component. This new transport model is found to reduce the error by a factor of 2 to 3 for drifters furthest in the MIZ using ice-based transport models in trajectory location after 48 h. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) The Cryosphere 16 5 2103 2114 |
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Open Polar |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract. Understanding the transport of objects and material in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is critical for human operations in polar regions. This can be the transport of pollutants, such as spilled oil, or the transport of objects, such as drifting ships and search and rescue operations. For emergency response, the use of environmental prediction systems are required which predict ice and ocean parameters and are run operationally by many centres in the world. As these prediction systems predict both ice and ocean velocities, as well as ice concentration, it must be chosen how to combine these data to best predict the mean transport velocities. In this paper we present a case study of four drifting buoys in the MIZ deployed at four distinct ice concentrations. We compare short-term trajectories, i.e. up to 48 h lead times, with standard transport models using ice and ocean velocities from two operational prediction systems. A new transport model for the MIZ is developed with two key features aimed to help mitigate uncertainties in ice–ocean prediction systems: first, including both ice and ocean velocities and linearly weighting them by ice concentration, and second, allowing for a non-zero leeway to be added to the ice velocity component. This new transport model is found to reduce the error by a factor of 2 to 3 for drifters furthest in the MIZ using ice-based transport models in trajectory location after 48 h. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind |
spellingShingle |
Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
author_facet |
Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind |
author_sort |
Sutherland, Graig |
title |
Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
title_short |
Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
title_full |
Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
title_fullStr |
Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
title_sort |
estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97583 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
1994-0416 |
op_relation |
NFR/280625 NFR/28062 NFR/276730 Sutherland, Graig Martins de Aguiar, Victor Cesar Hole, Lars Robert Rabault, Jean Dabboor, Mohammed Breivik, Øyvind . Estimating a mean transport velocity in the marginal ice zone using ice-ocean prediction systems. The Cryosphere. 2022, 16(5), 2103-2114 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/97583 2047788 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=16&rft.spage=2103&rft.date=2022 The Cryosphere 16 5 2103 2114 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2103-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2103 |
op_container_end_page |
2114 |
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1766216217711869952 |