Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 ye...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH
2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86794 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-89435 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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English |
description |
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng |
spellingShingle |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
author_facet |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng |
author_sort |
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. |
title |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_short |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_fullStr |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) |
title_sort |
large-scale features of last interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project (cmip6)–paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (pmip4) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86794 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-89435 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
1814-9324 |
op_relation |
NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN9486K EC/FP7/610055 NFR/246929 NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN4659K NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN9133K http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-89435 Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng . Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). Climate of the Past. 2021, 17(1), 63-94 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86794 1869322 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Climate of the Past&rft.volume=17&rft.spage=63&rft.date=2021 Climate of the Past 17 1 63 94 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 URN:NBN:no-89435 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/86794/1/cp-17-63-2021.pdf |
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Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/86794 2023-05-15T15:03:52+02:00 Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng 2021-01-11T17:41:37Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86794 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-89435 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 EN eng Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN9486K EC/FP7/610055 NFR/246929 NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN4659K NOTUR/NORSTORE/NN9133K http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-89435 Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Brady, Esther C. Zhao, Anni Brierley, Chris M. Axford, Yarrow Capron, Emilie Govin, Aline Hoffman, Jeremy S. Isaacs, Elizabeth Kageyama, Masa Scussolini, Paolo Tzedakis, Polychronis C. Williams, Charles J.R. Wolff, Eric W. Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Braconnot, Pascale Ramos Buarque, Silvana Cao, Jian de Vernal, Anne Vittoria Guarino, Maria Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra N. Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin J. Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina A. Nisancioglu, Kerim H. O'Ishi, Ryouta Mélia, David Salas Y. Shi, Xaoxu Sicard, Marie Sime, Louise C. Stepanek, Christian Tomas, Robert A. Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas K.H. Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng . Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). Climate of the Past. 2021, 17(1), 63-94 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86794 1869322 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Climate of the Past&rft.volume=17&rft.spage=63&rft.date=2021 Climate of the Past 17 1 63 94 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 URN:NBN:no-89435 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/86794/1/cp-17-63-2021.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1814-9324 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2021 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021 2021-08-18T22:31:36Z The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Canada Climate of the Past 17 1 63 94 |