Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change
Climate change is at the forefront of today’s global challenges with its potential to turn into a runaway process. Fishing pressure acts in concert and exacerbates the impacts of climate change. The North Atlantic Ocean is no exemption of the increasing anthropogenic stress with Atlantic cod, Gadus...
Published in: | Ecological Applications |
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Main Author: | |
Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86262 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-88908 |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/86262 |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Climate change is at the forefront of today’s global challenges with its potential to turn into a runaway process. Fishing pressure acts in concert and exacerbates the impacts of climate change. The North Atlantic Ocean is no exemption of the increasing anthropogenic stress with Atlantic cod, Gadus Morhua, one of its most prominent fish species, displaying the ocean’s state. Most Atlantic cod stocks have experienced high rates of fishing and biomass declines, leading to renovation of fishing regulations and the implementation of rebuilding strategies. Today, the cod stocks differ considerably in trends and commercial status with 8 stocks considered collapsed and 57 % of today’s landings supplied by one single stock, the North East Arctic cod. What drives the collapse and what drives the recovery of a stock? Elucidating drivers of Atlantic cod productivity at low abundance is inevitable for sustainably managing the species in its changing habitat. This thesis attempts a comprehensive study on climate change impacts by addressing rising ocean temperature (paper I-III), temperature variability (paper II), acidification (paper III) and uncertainty (of the biology and as risk in management under the precautionary approach [paper IV]). Individual and synergistic impacts of climate change are discussed with a particular focus on nonlinear dynamics, including the potential for Allee effects (paper I-III). Allee effects describe the decrease in per capita growth rate at small population size, which can hinder population recovery by reinforcing degradation. Such a shift in the underlying biology can be irreversible and demands proactive and precautionary management measures. Application of precautionary measures to protect the environment and manage risks in situations of high uncertainty is a central tenet of the “precautionary approach”, a guiding principle in fisheries management. The poor state of various commercial fish stocks worldwide stands in contrast to the precautionary approach and suggests a subordinate role of science in fisheries management. In paper IV, Canada’s fisheries policy and advisory process is contrasted with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy in regard to the precautionary approach and the role of science, in order to identify policy and institutional constraints that have hindered sustainable, precautionary management practices. Drawing from insights on climate change driven productivity changes (paper I-III) and the importance of a policy and institutional framework that acknowledges these (paper IV), this thesis ends with suggestions for scientifically informed, precautionary and sustainable fisheries management practices that can speed up recovery and allow for a vital fishery in the future. |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Winter, Anna-Marie |
spellingShingle |
Winter, Anna-Marie Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
author_facet |
Winter, Anna-Marie |
author_sort |
Winter, Anna-Marie |
title |
Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
title_short |
Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
title_full |
Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change |
title_sort |
nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing atlantic cod under climate change |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86262 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-88908 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic atlantic cod Climate change Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic atlantic cod Climate change Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Paper I: Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod Anna-Marie Winter, Andries P. Richter, Anne Maria Eikeset Published in Ecological Applications in August 2019. The paper is included in the thesis in DUO, and also available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 Paper II: Spawner weight and ocean temperature drive Allee effect dynamics in Atlantic cod, Gadus Morhua: inherent and emergent density regulation Anna-Marie Winter, Nadezda Vasilyeva, Artem Vladimirov Submitted to Biogeosciences in May 2021. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. Paper III: End-century projections of Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) under simultaneous ocean acidification and ocean warming from experimental data and time series Martina Stiasny, Anna-Marie Winter Manuscript. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. Paper IV: Impediments to Fisheries Recovery in Canada: Policy and Institutional Constraints on Developing Management Practices Compliant with the Precautionary Approach Anna-Marie Winter, Jeffrey A. Hutchings Published in Marine Policy in September 2020. The paper is included in the thesis in DUO, and also available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-88908 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86262 URN:NBN:no-88908 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/86262/1/PhD-Winter-DUO.pdf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 |
container_title |
Ecological Applications |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766304372958953472 |
spelling |
ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/86262 2023-05-15T14:30:33+02:00 Nonlinearity, irreversibility and surprise - managing Atlantic cod under climate change Winter, Anna-Marie 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86262 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-88908 en eng Paper I: Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod Anna-Marie Winter, Andries P. Richter, Anne Maria Eikeset Published in Ecological Applications in August 2019. The paper is included in the thesis in DUO, and also available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 Paper II: Spawner weight and ocean temperature drive Allee effect dynamics in Atlantic cod, Gadus Morhua: inherent and emergent density regulation Anna-Marie Winter, Nadezda Vasilyeva, Artem Vladimirov Submitted to Biogeosciences in May 2021. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. Paper III: End-century projections of Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) under simultaneous ocean acidification and ocean warming from experimental data and time series Martina Stiasny, Anna-Marie Winter Manuscript. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. Paper IV: Impediments to Fisheries Recovery in Canada: Policy and Institutional Constraints on Developing Management Practices Compliant with the Precautionary Approach Anna-Marie Winter, Jeffrey A. Hutchings Published in Marine Policy in September 2020. The paper is included in the thesis in DUO, and also available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-88908 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/86262 URN:NBN:no-88908 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/86262/1/PhD-Winter-DUO.pdf Doctoral thesis Doktoravhandling 2021 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104161 2021-06-02T22:30:59Z Climate change is at the forefront of today’s global challenges with its potential to turn into a runaway process. Fishing pressure acts in concert and exacerbates the impacts of climate change. The North Atlantic Ocean is no exemption of the increasing anthropogenic stress with Atlantic cod, Gadus Morhua, one of its most prominent fish species, displaying the ocean’s state. Most Atlantic cod stocks have experienced high rates of fishing and biomass declines, leading to renovation of fishing regulations and the implementation of rebuilding strategies. Today, the cod stocks differ considerably in trends and commercial status with 8 stocks considered collapsed and 57 % of today’s landings supplied by one single stock, the North East Arctic cod. What drives the collapse and what drives the recovery of a stock? Elucidating drivers of Atlantic cod productivity at low abundance is inevitable for sustainably managing the species in its changing habitat. This thesis attempts a comprehensive study on climate change impacts by addressing rising ocean temperature (paper I-III), temperature variability (paper II), acidification (paper III) and uncertainty (of the biology and as risk in management under the precautionary approach [paper IV]). Individual and synergistic impacts of climate change are discussed with a particular focus on nonlinear dynamics, including the potential for Allee effects (paper I-III). Allee effects describe the decrease in per capita growth rate at small population size, which can hinder population recovery by reinforcing degradation. Such a shift in the underlying biology can be irreversible and demands proactive and precautionary management measures. Application of precautionary measures to protect the environment and manage risks in situations of high uncertainty is a central tenet of the “precautionary approach”, a guiding principle in fisheries management. The poor state of various commercial fish stocks worldwide stands in contrast to the precautionary approach and suggests a subordinate role of science in fisheries management. In paper IV, Canada’s fisheries policy and advisory process is contrasted with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy in regard to the precautionary approach and the role of science, in order to identify policy and institutional constraints that have hindered sustainable, precautionary management practices. Drawing from insights on climate change driven productivity changes (paper I-III) and the importance of a policy and institutional framework that acknowledges these (paper IV), this thesis ends with suggestions for scientifically informed, precautionary and sustainable fisheries management practices that can speed up recovery and allow for a vital fishery in the future. Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Arctic cod Arctic atlantic cod Climate change Gadus morhua North Atlantic Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Ecological Applications 30 1 |