Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GC...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/82106 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-85024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 |
id |
ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/82106 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/82106 2023-05-15T15:07:49+02:00 Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier 2020-12-22T17:00:49Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/82106 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-85024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 EN eng ERC/758005) http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-85024 Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier . Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6. Nature Communications. 2020, 11 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/82106 1862875 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature Communications&rft.volume=11&rft.spage=&rft.date=2020 Nature Communications 11 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 URN:NBN:no-85024 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/82106/1/s41467-020-20011-8.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 2041-1723 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2020 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 2021-01-13T23:30:57Z Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21 st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Greenland Nature Communications 11 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21 st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21 st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier |
spellingShingle |
Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
author_facet |
Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Hofer, Stefan |
title |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
greater greenland ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise in cmip6 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/82106 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-85024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
2041-1723 |
op_relation |
ERC/758005) http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-85024 Hofer, Stefan Lang, Charlotte Amory, Charles Kittel, Christoph Delhasse, Alison Tedstone, Andrew J. Fettweis, Xavier . Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6. Nature Communications. 2020, 11 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/82106 1862875 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature Communications&rft.volume=11&rft.spage=&rft.date=2020 Nature Communications 11 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 URN:NBN:no-85024 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/82106/1/s41467-020-20011-8.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766339246641119232 |