Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution
Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to...
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Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH
2020
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/81808 2023-05-15T18:32:12+02:00 Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier 2020-12-03T11:35:33Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81808 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84849 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 EN eng Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84849 Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier . Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution. The Cryosphere. 2020, 14(11), 3979-3994 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81808 1855746 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=14&rft.spage=3979&rft.date=2020 The Cryosphere 14 11 3979 3994 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 URN:NBN:no-84849 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/81808/1/tc-14-3979-2020.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1994-0416 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2020 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 2020-12-23T23:31:05Z Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lack of long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess the performance of the Elmer/Ice full Stokes ice flow model using the long dataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snout fluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer de Glace glacier, France. Ice flow modeling results are compared in detail to comprehensive glaciological observations over 4 decades including both a period of glacier expansion preceding a long period of decay. To our knowledge, a comparison to data at this detail is unprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs the velocity, elevation and length variations of this glacier despite some discrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validated model was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climate scenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, the largest glacier in France, with a length of 20 km, could retreat by 2 to 6 km over the next 3 decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) The Cryosphere 14 11 3979 3994 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Alpine glaciers are shrinking and rapidly loosing mass in a warming climate. Glacier modeling is required to assess the future consequences of these retreats on water resources, the hydropower industry and risk management. However, the performance of such ice flow modeling is generally difficult to evaluate because of the lack of long-term glaciological observations. Here, we assess the performance of the Elmer/Ice full Stokes ice flow model using the long dataset of mass balance, thickness change, ice flow velocity and snout fluctuation measurements obtained between 1979 and 2015 on the Mer de Glace glacier, France. Ice flow modeling results are compared in detail to comprehensive glaciological observations over 4 decades including both a period of glacier expansion preceding a long period of decay. To our knowledge, a comparison to data at this detail is unprecedented. We found that the model accurately reconstructs the velocity, elevation and length variations of this glacier despite some discrepancies that remain unexplained. The calibrated and validated model was then applied to simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace from 2015 to 2050 using 26 different climate scenarios. Depending on the climate scenarios, the largest glacier in France, with a length of 20 km, could retreat by 2 to 6 km over the next 3 decades. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier |
spellingShingle |
Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
author_facet |
Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier |
author_sort |
Peyaud, Vincent |
title |
Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
title_short |
Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
title_full |
Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
title_fullStr |
Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
title_full_unstemmed |
Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
title_sort |
numerical modeling of the dynamics of the mer de glace glacier, french alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications under license by EGU – European Geosciences Union GmbH |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81808 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84849 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
1994-0416 |
op_relation |
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84849 Peyaud, Vincent Bouchayer, Coline Lili Mathy Gagliardini, Olivier Vincent, Christian Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Six, Delphine Laarman, Olivier . Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution. The Cryosphere. 2020, 14(11), 3979-3994 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81808 1855746 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=14&rft.spage=3979&rft.date=2020 The Cryosphere 14 11 3979 3994 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 URN:NBN:no-84849 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/81808/1/tc-14-3979-2020.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3979 |
op_container_end_page |
3994 |
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1766216274972508160 |