The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 year...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Language: | English |
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Blackwell Science Ltd.
2020
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81730 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84783 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/81730 2023-05-15T14:28:02+02:00 The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. 2020-12-16T19:02:48Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81730 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84783 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 EN eng Blackwell Science Ltd. NFR/267613 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84783 Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. . The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer. Global Change Biology. 2020 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81730 1860727 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Global Change Biology&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2020 Global Change Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 URN:NBN:no-84783 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/81730/1/VeibergTheNeglectedGlobalChangeBiology2020hybrid.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1354-1013 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2020 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 2020-12-23T23:31:03Z Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. body mass, climate change, fitness, GPS, movement ecology, plant phenology, Rangifer, snow, space use, ungulates Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Svalbard Global Change Biology 27 5 993 1002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. body mass, climate change, fitness, GPS, movement ecology, plant phenology, Rangifer, snow, space use, ungulates |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
spellingShingle |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
author_facet |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
author_sort |
Loe, Leif Egil |
title |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_short |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_fullStr |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full_unstemmed |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_sort |
neglected season: warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in arctic reindeer |
publisher |
Blackwell Science Ltd. |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81730 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84783 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
op_source |
1354-1013 |
op_relation |
NFR/267613 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-84783 Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. . The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer. Global Change Biology. 2020 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/81730 1860727 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Global Change Biology&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2020 Global Change Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 URN:NBN:no-84783 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/81730/1/VeibergTheNeglectedGlobalChangeBiology2020hybrid.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
993 |
op_container_end_page |
1002 |
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1766302172447768576 |