The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures
Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent ai...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/77301 2023-05-15T14:56:51+02:00 The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard 2020-02-06T14:06:19Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/77301 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80382 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 EN eng Copernicus GmbH http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80382 Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard . The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2019, 19(24), 15235-15245 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/77301 1791639 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics&rft.volume=19&rft.spage=15235&rft.date=2019 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19 24 15235 15245 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 URN:NBN:no-80382 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/77301/2/acp-19-15235-2019.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1680-7316 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2020 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 2020-07-01T22:29:15Z Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane (CH4), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90–28∘ S, 28∘ S–28∘ N, 28–60∘ N, and 60–90∘ N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by -0.3±0.08 ∘C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as −0.7 ∘C in the Arctic. Cutting CH4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., SO2) leads to warming. If SLCFs are mitigated heavily, we find a net warming of about 0.1 ∘C, but when uncertainties are included a slight cooling is also possible. In the climate optimal scenario, the largest contributions to cooling come from the energy, domestic, waste, and transportation sectors. In the maximum technically feasible mitigation scenario, emission changes from the industry, energy, and shipping sectors will cause warming. Some measures, such as those in the agriculture waste burning, domestic, transport, and industry sectors, have large impacts on the Arctic, especially by cutting BC emissions in winter in areas near the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic black carbon Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19 24 15235 15245 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane (CH4), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90–28∘ S, 28∘ S–28∘ N, 28–60∘ N, and 60–90∘ N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by -0.3±0.08 ∘C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as −0.7 ∘C in the Arctic. Cutting CH4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., SO2) leads to warming. If SLCFs are mitigated heavily, we find a net warming of about 0.1 ∘C, but when uncertainties are included a slight cooling is also possible. In the climate optimal scenario, the largest contributions to cooling come from the energy, domestic, waste, and transportation sectors. In the maximum technically feasible mitigation scenario, emission changes from the industry, energy, and shipping sectors will cause warming. Some measures, such as those in the agriculture waste burning, domestic, transport, and industry sectors, have large impacts on the Arctic, especially by cutting BC emissions in winter in areas near the Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard |
spellingShingle |
Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
author_facet |
Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard |
author_sort |
Aamaas, Borgar |
title |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_short |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_full |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_fullStr |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_full_unstemmed |
The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
title_sort |
regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/77301 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80382 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic black carbon |
genre_facet |
Arctic black carbon |
op_source |
1680-7316 |
op_relation |
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80382 Aamaas, Borgar Berntsen, Terje Koren Samset, Bjørn Hallvard . The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2019, 19(24), 15235-15245 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/77301 1791639 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics&rft.volume=19&rft.spage=15235&rft.date=2019 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19 24 15235 15245 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 URN:NBN:no-80382 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/77301/2/acp-19-15235-2019.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
15235 |
op_container_end_page |
15245 |
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1766328908672663552 |