Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas
Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones occurring during winter over open sea areas in certain polar sub‐regions. Due to their small size, they are not explicitly represented in present global climate models or Earth system models. In this study 18 members of the CESM Large Ensemble were dynamical...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/76900 2023-05-15T15:38:43+02:00 Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond 2019-10-17T21:03:46Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/76900 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80010 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 EN eng NFR/229771 (EVA) http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80010 Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond . Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/76900 1738172 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2019 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145 724 3116 3128 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 URN:NBN:no-80010 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/76900/1/Landgren_et_al-2019-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 0035-9009 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2019 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 2020-06-21T08:54:40Z Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones occurring during winter over open sea areas in certain polar sub‐regions. Due to their small size, they are not explicitly represented in present global climate models or Earth system models. In this study 18 members of the CESM Large Ensemble were dynamically downscaled to ∼12 km horizontal mesh width using the quasi‐hydrostatic ALARO model within the HARMONIE script system in climate mode (HCLIM‐ALARO). The domain covers the Nordic and Barents Seas. One historical and two future time‐periods were selected. For validation, the ERA‐Interim reanalysis was also downscaled. A cyclone‐tracking algorithm was used to identify tracks of individual polar lows. Their frequency of occurrence, lifetime, and maximum relative vorticity were estimated. Relative to ERA‐Interim, the historical frequency of occurrence of polar lows was slightly overestimated in the Nordic Seas and underestimated in the Barents Sea, which is likely due to positive biases in sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice concentration. For future climate projections, the regions of polar low genesis are diagnosed to move northwards in accordance with the sea‐ice retreat. In the Nordic Seas, the number of polar lows decreases at the beginning of the season, while there is an increase in March. In the Barents Sea, a February–April increase in the occurrence of polar lows is seen. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Nordic Seas Sea ice Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Barents Sea Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145 724 3116 3128 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones occurring during winter over open sea areas in certain polar sub‐regions. Due to their small size, they are not explicitly represented in present global climate models or Earth system models. In this study 18 members of the CESM Large Ensemble were dynamically downscaled to ∼12 km horizontal mesh width using the quasi‐hydrostatic ALARO model within the HARMONIE script system in climate mode (HCLIM‐ALARO). The domain covers the Nordic and Barents Seas. One historical and two future time‐periods were selected. For validation, the ERA‐Interim reanalysis was also downscaled. A cyclone‐tracking algorithm was used to identify tracks of individual polar lows. Their frequency of occurrence, lifetime, and maximum relative vorticity were estimated. Relative to ERA‐Interim, the historical frequency of occurrence of polar lows was slightly overestimated in the Nordic Seas and underestimated in the Barents Sea, which is likely due to positive biases in sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice concentration. For future climate projections, the regions of polar low genesis are diagnosed to move northwards in accordance with the sea‐ice retreat. In the Nordic Seas, the number of polar lows decreases at the beginning of the season, while there is an increase in March. In the Barents Sea, a February–April increase in the occurrence of polar lows is seen. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond |
spellingShingle |
Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
author_facet |
Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond |
author_sort |
Landgren, Oskar Andreas |
title |
Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_short |
Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_full |
Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_fullStr |
Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas |
title_sort |
polar low variability and future projections for the nordic and barents seas |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/76900 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80010 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas Sea ice |
op_source |
0035-9009 |
op_relation |
NFR/229771 (EVA) http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-80010 Landgren, Oskar Andreas Batrak, Yurii Haugen, Jan Erik Støylen, Eivind Iversen, Trond . Polar low variability and future projections for the Nordic and Barents Seas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/76900 1738172 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2019 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145 724 3116 3128 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 URN:NBN:no-80010 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/76900/1/Landgren_et_al-2019-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3608 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
145 |
container_issue |
724 |
container_start_page |
3116 |
op_container_end_page |
3128 |
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1766369994213425152 |