Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly sy...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/74568 2023-05-15T15:27:12+02:00 Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian 2019-06-19T09:51:29Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74568 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77669 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 EN eng Royal Society Publishing NFR/244647 EC/H2020/675997 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77669 Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian . Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. 2019, 286(1898) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74568 1705963 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences&rft.volume=286&rft.spage=&rft.date=2019 Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences 286 1898 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 URN:NBN:no-77669 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/74568/1/Sguotti%2BOtto%2Bet%2Bal%2B%2528PRSB%2B2019%2529.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 0962-8452 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2019 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 2020-06-21T08:54:03Z Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286 1898 20182877 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
author_facet |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian |
author_sort |
Sguotti, Camilla |
title |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_short |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_fullStr |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full_unstemmed |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_sort |
catastrophic dynamics limit atlantic cod recovery |
publisher |
Royal Society Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74568 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77669 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
0962-8452 |
op_relation |
NFR/244647 EC/H2020/675997 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77669 Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian . Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. 2019, 286(1898) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74568 1705963 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences&rft.volume=286&rft.spage=&rft.date=2019 Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences 286 1898 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 URN:NBN:no-77669 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/74568/1/Sguotti%2BOtto%2Bet%2Bal%2B%2528PRSB%2B2019%2529.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
286 |
container_issue |
1898 |
container_start_page |
20182877 |
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1766357644097880064 |