Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, eviden...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74190 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77276 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/74190 2023-05-15T14:28:06+02:00 Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård 2019-05-09T14:54:37Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74190 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77276 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b EN eng NFR/274711 VETENSKAPSRÅDET/2017-05268 OTHER/NA15OAR4320063 - NOAA Cooperative Agreement http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77276 Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård . Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. Environmental Research Letters. 2019, 14:045010(4), 1-19 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74190 1696725 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Environmental Research Letters&rft.volume=14:045010&rft.spage=1&rft.date=2019 Environmental Research Letters 14 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b URN:NBN:no-77276 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/74190/1/2019_10.1088_1748_9326_aafc1b.pdf Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY 1748-9326 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2019 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b 2020-06-21T08:53:55Z Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 14 4 045010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård |
spellingShingle |
Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
author_facet |
Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård |
author_sort |
Box, Jason E. |
title |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_short |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_fullStr |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_sort |
key indicators of arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74190 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77276 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
op_source |
1748-9326 |
op_relation |
NFR/274711 VETENSKAPSRÅDET/2017-05268 OTHER/NA15OAR4320063 - NOAA Cooperative Agreement http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77276 Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård . Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. Environmental Research Letters. 2019, 14:045010(4), 1-19 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/74190 1696725 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Environmental Research Letters&rft.volume=14:045010&rft.spage=1&rft.date=2019 Environmental Research Letters 14 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b URN:NBN:no-77276 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/74190/1/2019_10.1088_1748_9326_aafc1b.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
045010 |
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1766302250037149696 |