Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/72721 2023-05-15T14:27:39+02:00 Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska 2019-03-17T15:55:30Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/72721 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-75859 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 EN eng http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-75859 Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska . Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century. Nature Communications. 2018, 9(1) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/72721 1685384 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature Communications&rft.volume=9&rft.spage=&rft.date=2018 Nature Communications 9 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 URN:NBN:no-75859 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/72721/1/s41467-018-07557-4.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 2041-1723 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2019 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 2020-06-21T08:53:20Z Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Nature Communications 9 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska |
spellingShingle |
Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
author_facet |
Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Hjort, Jan |
title |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_short |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_fullStr |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_sort |
degrading permafrost puts arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/72721 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-75859 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
2041-1723 |
op_relation |
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-75859 Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska . Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century. Nature Communications. 2018, 9(1) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/72721 1685384 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature Communications&rft.volume=9&rft.spage=&rft.date=2018 Nature Communications 9 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 URN:NBN:no-75859 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/72721/1/s41467-018-07557-4.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
9 |
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1 |
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1766301499975008256 |