Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean....
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/67958 2023-05-15T15:38:21+02:00 Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. ENEngelskEnglishClimate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir 2018-10-29T12:00:54Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/67958 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-71122 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) EC/H2020/727852 NFR/263223 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-71122 Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir . Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PLoS ONE. 2018, 13(10) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/67958 1624410 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=PLoS ONE&rft.volume=13&rft.spage=&rft.date=2018 PLoS ONE 13 10 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 URN:NBN:no-71122 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/67958/2/journal.pone.0206319.pdf Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 1932-6203 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2018 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 2020-06-21T08:52:33Z Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957–2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea North Atlantic Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Barents Sea PLOS ONE 13 10 e0206319 |
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Open Polar |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957–2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir |
spellingShingle |
Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
author_facet |
Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir |
author_sort |
Årthun, Marius |
title |
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
title_short |
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
title_full |
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
title_fullStr |
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. |
title_sort |
climate based multi-year predictions of the barents sea cod stock. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/67958 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-71122 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea North Atlantic |
op_source |
1932-6203 |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/727852 NFR/263223 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-71122 Årthun, Marius Bogstad, Bjarte Daewel, Ute Keenlyside, Noel Sandø, Anne Britt Schrum, Corinna Ottersen, Geir . Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PLoS ONE. 2018, 13(10) http://hdl.handle.net/10852/67958 1624410 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=PLoS ONE&rft.volume=13&rft.spage=&rft.date=2018 PLoS ONE 13 10 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 URN:NBN:no-71122 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/67958/2/journal.pone.0206319.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0206319 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
e0206319 |
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1766369215314395136 |