Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway
Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational a...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/56822 2023-05-15T17:55:21+02:00 Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd 2013-08-28T10:35:01Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/56822 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-59624 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 EN eng National Snow and Ice Data Center http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-59624 Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd . Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway. The Cryosphere. 2013, 7(2), 719-739 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/56822 1045440 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=7&rft.spage=719&rft.date=2013 The Cryosphere 7 2 719 739 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 URN:NBN:no-59624 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/56822/1/tc-7-719-2013.pdf Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY 1994-0416 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2013 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 2020-06-21T08:50:56Z Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Norway The Cryosphere 7 2 719 739 |
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Open Polar |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd |
spellingShingle |
Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
author_facet |
Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd |
author_sort |
Westermann, Sebastian |
title |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_short |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_full |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_fullStr |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_sort |
transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in southern norway |
publisher |
National Snow and Ice Data Center |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/56822 http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-59624 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
1994-0416 |
op_relation |
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-59624 Westermann, Sebastian Schuler, Thomas Gisnås, Kjersti Etzelmuller, Bernd . Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway. The Cryosphere. 2013, 7(2), 719-739 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/56822 1045440 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=The Cryosphere&rft.volume=7&rft.spage=719&rft.date=2013 The Cryosphere 7 2 719 739 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 URN:NBN:no-59624 Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/56822/1/tc-7-719-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
719 |
op_container_end_page |
739 |
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1766163275062444032 |