Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower
Abstract Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1,2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed i...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/108403 2024-09-15T18:23:36+00:00 Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower ENEngelskEnglishOceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang 2023-03-17T11:48:07Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/108403 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 EN eng Nature Portfolio Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang . Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower. Nature. 2023, 615, 87-93 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/108403 2134723 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.volume=615&rft.spage=87&rft.date=2023 Nature 615 7950 87 93 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 0028-0836 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2023 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 2024-08-05T14:09:29Z Abstract Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1,2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Nature 615 7950 87 93 |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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English |
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Abstract Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1,2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang |
spellingShingle |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
author_facet |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang |
author_sort |
Zhang, Qiang |
title |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_short |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_full |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_fullStr |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_full_unstemmed |
Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower |
title_sort |
oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of asia's water tower |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/108403 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
0028-0836 |
op_relation |
Zhang, Qiang Shen, Zexi Pokhrel, Yadu Farinotti, Daniel Singh, Vijay P. Xu, Chong-Yu Wu, Wenhuan Wang, Gang . Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower. Nature. 2023, 615, 87-93 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/108403 2134723 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.volume=615&rft.spage=87&rft.date=2023 Nature 615 7950 87 93 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8 |
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Nature |
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615 |
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7950 |
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87 |
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1810463847522238464 |