Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models
Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the ca...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/107382 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
id |
ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/107382 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/107382 2024-09-15T18:29:16+00:00 Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models ENEngelskEnglishEvaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna 2023-12-05T11:57:29Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/107382 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 EN eng NFR/309625 Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna . Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models. Environmental Research Letters. 2023, 19 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/107382 2209105 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Environmental Research Letters&rft.volume=19&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Environmental Research Letters 19 1 13 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 1748-9326 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2023 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 2024-08-05T14:09:29Z Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km2, where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs. Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Environmental Research Letters 19 1 014033 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km2, where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs. Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna |
spellingShingle |
Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
author_facet |
Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna |
author_sort |
Steinert, Norman |
title |
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
title_short |
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
title_full |
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
title_sort |
evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in cmip6 climate models |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/107382 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
1748-9326 |
op_relation |
NFR/309625 Steinert, Norman Debolskiy, Matvey Burke, Eleanor J. García-Pereira, Félix Lee, Hanna . Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models. Environmental Research Letters. 2023, 19 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/107382 2209105 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Environmental Research Letters&rft.volume=19&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Environmental Research Letters 19 1 13 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014033 |
_version_ |
1810470688093372416 |