Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties
Empirical glacier mass-balance models are commonly used in assessments of glacier and runoff evolution. Recent satellite-borne geodetic mass-balance observations of global coverage facilitate large-scale model calibration that previously relied on sparse in situ observations of glacier mass change....
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/105583 2023-11-12T04:17:31+01:00 Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties ENEngelskEnglishBayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie 2023-08-31T13:57:06Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/105583 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 EN eng NFR/302458 Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie . Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties. Journal of Glaciology. 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/105583 2171405 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Glaciology&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Journal of Glaciology 1 20 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 0022-1430 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2023 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 2023-10-18T22:39:27Z Empirical glacier mass-balance models are commonly used in assessments of glacier and runoff evolution. Recent satellite-borne geodetic mass-balance observations of global coverage facilitate large-scale model calibration that previously relied on sparse in situ observations of glacier mass change. Geodetic observations constitute temporally aggregated mass-balance signals with significant uncertainty, raising questions about the role of observations with different temporal resolutions and uncertainties in constraining model parameters. We employ a Bayesian approach and demonstrate the sensitivity of parameter values to commonly used mass-balance observations of seasonal, annual and decadal resolution with uncertainties characteristic to in situ and satellite-borne observations. For glaciers along a continentality gradient in Norway, the use of annual mass balances results in around 20% lower magnitude of modelled ablation and accumulation (1960–2020), compared to employing seasonal balances. Decadal mass balance also underestimates magnitudes of ablation and accumulation, but parameter values are strongly influenced by the prior distribution. The datasets yield similar estimates of annual mass balance with different margins of uncertainty. Decadal observations are afflicted with considerable uncertainty in mass-balance sensitivity due to high parameter uncertainty. Our results highlight the importance of seasonal observations when model applications require accurate magnitudes of ablation, e.g. to estimate meltwater runoff. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Journal of Glaciology Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Norway Journal of Glaciology 1 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Empirical glacier mass-balance models are commonly used in assessments of glacier and runoff evolution. Recent satellite-borne geodetic mass-balance observations of global coverage facilitate large-scale model calibration that previously relied on sparse in situ observations of glacier mass change. Geodetic observations constitute temporally aggregated mass-balance signals with significant uncertainty, raising questions about the role of observations with different temporal resolutions and uncertainties in constraining model parameters. We employ a Bayesian approach and demonstrate the sensitivity of parameter values to commonly used mass-balance observations of seasonal, annual and decadal resolution with uncertainties characteristic to in situ and satellite-borne observations. For glaciers along a continentality gradient in Norway, the use of annual mass balances results in around 20% lower magnitude of modelled ablation and accumulation (1960–2020), compared to employing seasonal balances. Decadal mass balance also underestimates magnitudes of ablation and accumulation, but parameter values are strongly influenced by the prior distribution. The datasets yield similar estimates of annual mass balance with different margins of uncertainty. Decadal observations are afflicted with considerable uncertainty in mass-balance sensitivity due to high parameter uncertainty. Our results highlight the importance of seasonal observations when model applications require accurate magnitudes of ablation, e.g. to estimate meltwater runoff. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie |
spellingShingle |
Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
author_facet |
Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie |
author_sort |
Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes |
title |
Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
title_short |
Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
title_full |
Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
title_sort |
bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/105583 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
glacier Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
0022-1430 |
op_relation |
NFR/302458 Sjursen, Kamilla Hauknes Dunse, Thorben Tambue, Antoine Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar Andreassen, Liss Marie . Bayesian parameter estimation in glacier mass-balance modelling using observations with distinct temporal resolutions and uncertainties. Journal of Glaciology. 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/105583 2171405 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Glaciology&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Journal of Glaciology 1 20 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.62 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
20 |
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1782334381396852736 |